By Kirk Kovach

In what should come as a surprise to no one, North Carolina will once again be among the most competitive states in the 2020 election.

That holds true not only for the top of the ticket — President Donald Trump versus whoever claws through the Democratic primaries — but for races down ballot as well. 

Last week, Public Policy Polling of Raleigh released its latest results, testing various scenarios that may arise in next year’s contests. The clearest takeaway is how divided the state is. The president holds 46% to 47% of the electorate in any matchup, with Democrats ranging from Joe Biden at 51% down to Pete Buttigieg at 46%. Regardless of the nominee, as things stand just over a year out, it will be a nail-biter.

The true divide among North Carolinians is uncovered by asking whether they support or oppose impeaching Trump: 48% support it and the same number oppose it. An estimated 4% of the state’s voters are “not sure.” That is a telling number. The state remains just as divided on the question of President Trump as it was on the question of candidate Trump three years ago.

In 2016, polls showed a neck-and-neck race between Hillary Clinton and Trump. Days before the election, a New York Times/Siena poll reported a statistical tie and a 3.5-point margin of error. Trump would go on to win by 3.6% in one of the closest races in the nation. Despite what some folks may say, the concept of a swing voter is alive and well in American politics.

Recently, there have been various suggestions posited for how either party should rally the troops in anticipation of 2020. This is less true for Republicans, given their standard-bearer is static while Democrats sort out who should lead the ticket. There is a running debate among factions of the Democratic Party as to how victory will manifest itself next year. Is the strategy base mobilization, correcting for the lower turnout among three key states last time, or is it a moderate message that appeals to voters in the suburbs?

In some ways, that’s a false choice. As Yascha Mounk wrote in The Atlantic this month, a pivot leftward for Democrats isn’t a guaranteed strategy. Demographics as destiny is often touted as a long-term bulwark for Democrats: The idea that a population that continues to diversify will skew toward Democrats given past voting history. This is true insofar as new voters mirror old ones, but it’s also based on a sample of moderate Democratic candidacies and governance. 

Mounk writes: “After all, black and Latino Democrats are actually more likely to be moderate — or even conservative — than white Democrats.” If skin color alone determined partisanship, Texas would have two Democratic senators today. What matters is the message and the messenger. Exciting the most liberal faction within the Democratic Party is a clear strategy to win the primary but may yield less in a general election.

Whatever comes of the Democratic primaries, the conversation will have to reduce to a simple one: Trump or not.

Whether the Democratic candidate fights for a “return to normalcy” or for “big, structural change,” it all comes down to whether or not the American people — and, in our case, North Carolinians — prefer a different resident in the White House. Circling back to the 4% “not sure” on the impeachment question, despite being one of the largest states in the union, it all comes down to that group.

An estimated 48% of us would like to see the president impeached and 48% of us would not. Ultimately in 2020, the remaining 4% will be the deciders in the North Carolina vote, and our electoral votes could very well be the deciding factor nationwide. 

Kirk Kovach is from Rowan County and writes for politicsnc.com.