History, turnout aids Trump in lopsided Rowan County win

Published 12:10 am Sunday, November 13, 2016

By Josh Bergeron
josh.bergeron@salisburypost.com

SALISBURY — A number of factors dictated that a Republican would win Rowan County in 2016, but President-elect Donald Trump also beat multiple historical marks en route to his victory.

First, Rowan County would set a record for turnout during early voting. Trump would receive more than 26,000 votes before Election Day. He’d add nearly 16,000 votes to his total on Election Day. Partly because of the county’s increasing population, Trump received the most votes of any presidential candidate in Rowan County’s history.

Meanwhile, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was unable to beat the local vote totals of her party’s prior two nominees.

Trump received a total of 42,388 votes in Rowan County’s election. Clinton received 19,208.

Despite the lopsided totals, both sides of the political spectrum made concerted efforts to sway voters in Rowan.

Clinton’s coordinated campaign, for example, brought staff to Salisbury in an effort to turn out voters. Coordinated campaign staff operated out of the Democratic Party’s headquarters building.

The GOP’s organizing efforts mostly came through the Republican Party rather than a coordinated campaign. For example, the local Republican Party sent a flyer with its endorsed candidates to a number of GOP-leaning voters in the county, according to party Chairman Stephen Kidd.

Hundreds of volunteers also made “tens of thousands of targeted voter contacts” in Rowan County, said Republican National Committee spokesperson Kara Carter.

Three events may have helped Republican turnout. Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, visited Rowan twice. Eric Trump, the president-elect’s son, visited the county once. Vice-President-elect Mike Pence held an event at Catawba College.

The Clinton campaign sent surrogates but none were the campaign’s best.

Results of the election, however, aren’t solely a result of efforts by local political parties. Voter registration and past election results made it a near-certainty that Trump would win the county.

Republicans make up the largest portion of registered voters in Rowan. It’s unclear exactly how many unaffiliated voters lean Republican. However, Republican presidential candidates have consistently won the county since at least 2000. Identical trends in Rowan exist for GOP candidates in statewide races.

Another factor that helped Trump in Rowan: the mostly Republican county precincts turned out to vote at higher rates than areas that historically have been more Democratic — Salisbury, Spencer and East Spencer.

Granite Quarry turned out the largest number of people during early voting. Landis ranked second and China Grove ranked third. All three sit among the largest precincts for total voter registration. All three are also heavily Republican.

Once results for Election Day are included, the top three precincts for turnout are also heavily Republican. Although it’s relatively small in terms of the number of registered voters, Mount Ulla ranked as the best precinct for total turnout at 75.72 percent. Scotch Irish ranked second at 74.8 percent. Faith was third at 74.67 percent.

No precinct in Salisbury, Spencer or East Spencer ranked in the top 10 for overall turnout. Of the city precincts, Spencer did best with 65.94 percent turnout.

West Ward 3 — overwhelmingly Democratic — ranked lowest in overall turnout at 34.81 percent. The precinct contains much of Salisbury’s West End neighborhood.

East Spencer ranked second-lowest at 52.49 percent.

West Kannapolis — relatively balanced in terms of party registration — was third lowest in turnout at 60.94 percent.

The turnout rate for all of Rowan County was 67.21 percent, according to unofficial results. That number could change based on provisional ballots and absentee ballots not yet counted.

Laura Russell, Rowan elections specialist, said 785 provisional ballots need to be considered by the local Board of Elections. Director Nancy Evans said she’s unsure how many of the outstanding absentee ballots have been sent in time to be counted.

The Rowan County Board of Elections will finalize election results during a meeting scheduled for 11 a.m. Friday. The meeting will be held at the Board of Elections office at West End Plaza — 1935 Jake Alexander Blvd. W.

Contact reporter Josh Bergeron at 704-797-4246.