Youíve no doubt heard this take on unemployment: If youíre out of work, the jobless rate is 100 percent, no matter what the statistics say; if youíre still working, the unemployment rate is 0.
A similar perspective can come into play following natural disasters like Hurricane Irene, when worst-case scenarios donít materialize. If you and your loved ones escaped harm and thereís still a roof over your head, things couldnít have been that bad. Someone with a tree in their dining room, a soggy mess of carpeting or flooded field of soybeans might beg to differ.
Hurricane Irene didnít clobber major East Coast cities such as Philadelphia, New York and Washington with the fury some had anticipated late last week, but it was plenty bad enough. Flood waters continued to rage Monday in Vermont and upstate New York as North Carolina and other states began to tally the damages. While Irene may have fallen in intensity to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in North Carolina, it was still a major blow. By Monday afternoon, the toll had climbed to 35 fatalities, including six in North Carolina. Almost 8 million homes and businesses were without power, and it will take days to restore electricity to many of those. Coastal roads were left impassable. Air and rail travel were disrupted, although most airports were resuming normal operations. Estimates of financial losses were approaching $7 billion, with North Carolina and other states asking for federal disaster designations so that businesses and homeowners can get help cleaning up. New Yorkís subways were running, yet some coastal and inland areas were still submerged.
Although some may accuse the media and forecasters of overhyping Ireneís threat, forecasting isnít an exact science, especially when gauging a stormís intensity over the course of several days. We need only look back six years, to Katrina, for a lesson in what can result from failing to prepare for the worst. Katrina also provided a costly lesson in the critical role of federal and state agencies in preparing for disasters and spearheading recovery efforts afterward. Such support will now be needed from North Carolina through New England to rebuild roads, bridges, schools, homes and businesses.
Irene was a large, destructive storm, with the potential to wreak havoc over heavily populated areas of the East Coast. That nightmare scenarios didnít come to pass can be attributed to preparedness, as well as weakening winds. Even so, many coastal and low-lying areas suffered a severe battering. Those spared the brunt of the storm should count themselves lucky.