Forecasters say itís still too early to say where Hurricane Irene might make landfall, but their warnings make it abundantly clear this is a major storm that could pack a damaging wallop.
Although coastal areas are likely to bear the brunt of landfall, the experience of Hurricane Floyd more than a decade ago showed that inland residents canít afford to be complacent when it comes to hurricane preparedness. A major storm can spread flooding, power outages and travel disruptions far beyond the stateís barrier islands and beaches. While inland residents donít need to board up windows, they do need to keep a close watch on Irene and make sure they have the usual checklist of basic emergency supplies such as bottled water, canned foods and spare flashlight batteries. As Tuesdayís earthquake tremors reminded us, nature doesnít always give forewarning before disaster strikes.
With Irene, however, there is advance notice. As of Wednesday afternoon, forecasters said the category 3 storm, with sustained winds of up to 115 mph, could hit anywhere from North Carolina to New York. As weather experts track Ireneís progress over hours and days, the landfall possibilities will become much clearer. Although forecasters still speak in terms of possible paths and ěconesî of uncertainty, the accuracy of hurricane forecasts has steadily improved in recent years. At a panel discussion earlier in May, hurricane researchers talked about the increased understanding of storm formation and direction. Between the 1960s and 1983, the average error in hurricane forecasts was 400 miles at 72 hours. That meant that storm trackersí predictions of where a hurricane might travel in the next three days were off an average of 400 miles. Now, theyíve cut the error range in half, to less than 200 miles 72 hours out, and less than 100 miles at 48 hours.
Even as tracking tools improve, forecasters acknowledge progress is slower in another area ó predicting hurricane intensity. Storms can gain or lose strength rapidly as they churn across the ocean. Sometimes, storms drift back out into the ocean and gain strength before slamming ashore. That uncertainty is one more reason to pay attention to hurricane forecasts and be prepared for the unexpected.