High school football: Week 10 is not weak

Published 12:00 am Thursday, October 19, 2023

 

By Mike London
mike.london@salisburypost.com

SALISBURY — Weather hasn’t been much of a factor for this high school football season, not since some unpleasant early heat.

Some years the games have been bounced all over the calendar by weather concerns, but this has been a stable season.

At least that was the case until this week. With a 70 percent chance of rain on Friday, and with a significant chance of thunderstorms and lightning, there is some movement now.

North Rowan’s Senior Night game with Lexington has been moved up to Thursday at 7 p.m.

One of the biggest games in the state in 3A — Northwest Cabarrus at Robinson — had a schedule revision announced on Wednesday morning.

The Trojans and Bulldogs, both 8-0, will kick off at 7 p.m. on Thursday. They will decide the South Piedmont Conference championship. Robinson is a 10-point favorite, according to the Massey Ratings, but that should be a classic game.

Robinson outscored its four Rowan opponents in the SPC by 199-13. Northwest Cabarrus outscored those same four teams 193-9.

Will more games be moved?

It’s possible, although moving a varsity game up to Thursday also means shifting jayvee game out of its normal time slot, so changes normally are announced  by Wednesday morning.

Salisbury (9-0) is off this week, so Jamal Rule (185 carries, 1,821 yards) will get to rest his legs a bit. Rule, Mike Geter and Deuce Walker will return to pursuing more record book entries and a Central Carolina Conference championship next week.

Salisbury is only fifth in the 2A West RPI rankings. The Hornets (9-0) are behind Forest Hills (7-1), Reidsville (7-1), Monroe (7-1) and Randleman (8-0). While the Hornets have a perfect winning percentage, they have the lowest “OWP” — that’s opponents’ winning percentage — of anyone in the 2A West top 10.

The Person Rockets are 5-3, but the Hornets’ other three non-conference opponents have losing records.

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Lexington (5-3, 3-1 CCC) at North Rowan (7-1, 4-0 CCC), Thursday, 7 p.m.

Lexington was pounded 44-13 by Salisbury last week to end its championship dreams, but the Yellow Jackets are dangerous. Four turnovers killed them against Salisbury, but they have a lot of athletes.

North has won six in a row and is favored by 26 points by the Massey Ratings, but it probably will be closer than that.

North senior Jaemias Morrow is closing in on the school record for touchdowns. After getting four last week, he’s four behind Jareke Chambers, who had 72.

It’s worth noting that North’s only loss was to Forest Hills, which is on top of the 2A West RPI rankings.

North is fifth in the 1A West rankings.

A win would keep the Cavaliers on track for a monster game with Salisbury next week, but they can’t afford to look ahead.

Lexington beat North as recently as 2019, although the Cavaliers rolled 42-20 in 2022. North leads the all-time series 28-16.

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South Rowan (2-6, 1-4 SPC) at East Rowan (0-8, 0-5 SPC), Friday, 7 p.m.

East may be the first 0-8 team ever to be favored by 15 points to beat someone, but that’s how the Massey Ratings see this matchup.

East has been outscored 330-99, while South has been outscored 344-121. Not much difference there.

South did beat Central Cabarrus, while the Mustangs lost to Central.

East has won seven in a row in the series since the Raiders triumphed at East in 2014.

South leads the all-time series 32-24. That’s the most wins South owns against any program.

It should be fun. Both teams have had this one circled on the calendar for a while.

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West Rowan (3-5, 3-2 SPC) at Concord (5-3, 3-3 SPC), Friday, 7:30 p.m.

It will be a significant game at Bailey Stadium, as both teams have made plans to finish third in the South Piedmont Conference.

If Robinson-Northwest is the Rose Bowl, this is the Gasparilla Bowl.

It looks like West will have to win  to get in the playoffs. Concord has a loftier RPI ranking than the Falcons, by quite a bit.

It’s a little surprising that West is a 6-point favorite on the road, with a 59 percent win probability. That win probability rises for the Falcons if Concord two-way player Keyon Phillips can’t play. He’s the quarterback for the Spiders. He was hurt in last week’s loss to Northwest Cabarrus.

This is the last SPC game for Concord. The Spiders will finish next week against rival A.L. Brown.

Concord leads the series 17-8. West won a defensive struggle 14-7 in 2022, but Concord beat West in a game for the SPC title in 2021, the last time the teams met in Concord.

There have been many memorable games in the series, including BJ Sherrill’s five TD passes against Concord in the 2010 playoffs.

•••

Carson (3-5, 2-3 SPC) at Central Cabarrus (2-6, 1-4 SPC), Friday, 7 p.m.

Carson is a 9-point favorite on the road in a must-win game for the Cougars.

That seems to be a reasonable prediction by the Massey Ratings, although the Vikings have no pressure on them and Central QB Kaden Kline could test the Cougars’ secondary.

Carson was dismayed to drop in the RPI rankings following a win against East Rowan last week, but that can happen with the RPI formula, especially when the team you beat has a .000 winning percentage. Opponents’ winning percentage is one of the three components of RPI.

All Carson, 36th in the 3A West RPI rankings, can control is winning its last two games — Central, and then South Rowan. There’s a lot of stuff that can happen to propel Carson into the playoffs if the Cougars can get to 5-5.

Jay McGruder joined the “200 Club” with a career rushing game against East Rowan and is looking forward to playing on the turf at Central. Carson got a touchdown pass from young QB Griffin Barber and 100-plus rushing yards from Makani Guida.

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A.L. Brown (4-4, 2-3 GMC) at Mooresville (8-0, 4-0 GMC), Friday, 7 p.m.

Mooresville is favored by 31 points by the Massey Ratings. The score projection is 43-12. Wonders are given a 5 percent chance of shocking the world.

Mooresville has allowed only 85 points all season, while scoring 306.  The Blue Devils put up 40-plus points against Cox Mill and Hickory Ridge, two teams that beat the Wonders.

This is A.L. Brown’s last Greater Metro Conference game. The Wonders finish with the traditional game against Concord.

A.L. Brown QB CJ Gray has 14 TD passes and six rushing TDs. He’s the son of former Livingstone player Charlie Gray.

The Wonders lead the all-time series 26-17, but the Blue Devils have won the last four. A.L. Brown’s most recent win was in 2017.

The most famous game in the series probably was A.L. Brown’s 26-0 romp over Blue Devils in the 1960 Piedmont Championship Game.

Those Mooresville and A.L. Brown players joined forces in baseball in the summer of 1961 for the last American Legion state championship that was won by Kannapolis.

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Davie (5-3, 3-2) is favored by 36 points against Parkland, but Parkland has improved some and there aren’t many routine outings in the Central Piedmont Conference.