Cook: Government jobs under microscope

Salisbury City Council invited several dozen members of the community to hear economist John Connaughton talk Thursday about the forecast for the area economy.

One of Connaughton’s bar graphs spoke volumes.

It showed changes in U.S. employment by sector around 2008-2009. Nearly every sector was down. Professional services, down. Construction, way down. Manufacturing, way, way down.

Government, up.

Up?

There’s some logic in that. As jobs became scarce, more people sought help from the government programs. With an infusion of cash from the federal stimulus, law enforcement agencies hired more officers and states kept a steady number of teachers on the payroll. Census workers were hired.

But the stimulus and the Census are over. Sales, property and income tax declines have followed the job losses and caught up with government. Now the tough decisions that businesses have been making for the past three or four years will have to be made in Washington, state capitols, city halls and county office buildings across the land. You don’t spur a recovery by putting more people in the unemployment line. But if the money’s not there to pay workers, the money’s not there.

Dear Government Employees: Taxpayers feel your pain — to a point.

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Leadership Cabarrus includes a media day in its annual programming, and recently I joined other print journalists from the region in Concord to talk to the leadership group about the future of our industry.

Cut to the chase. None of us knows which news platform or revenue stream our businesses will rely on five years from now. We do know, though, that the public’s appetite for news and information is greater than ever. We’ve streamlined our staffs and reinvented ourselves to keep feeding news out in print, online, mobile and whatever comes next.

The changing dynamics of the news business are, well, old news — and not all that different from other industries. I asked the Leadership Cabarrus class members how many worked for a company that had laid off people or cut back services because of the recession.

Nearly everyone raised a hand. Each of us is so focused on our own industry and our own jobs that we forget it’s the same all over.

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But has it been the same in government? That sector faces different pressures.

Local businesses are fighting for their lives. They’ve trimmed back to the bone — even amputated limbs — because the alternative was to go out of business. That’s the powerful motivator behind increases in U.S. productivity. Be glad you have a job.

National leaders may debate whether the U.S. government is headed toward bankruptcy. But local government’s place in the economy is assured. It just has to live within its means and balance its budget each year.

The “more with less” mantra is nothing new for these workers. Empty positions have been frozen, agencies have cut back hours. But a lot of government employees who already consider themselves overworked and underpaid may have to maintain services with even less — probably with fewer secretaries, assistants and middle managers to help.

Connaughton, who teaches at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, told council members and city administrators they faced the enormous job of dealing with things not of their making.

Full economic recovery is five years away, he predicted. The reality this year and probably for the foreseeable future is that federal, state and local governments are going to be smaller, he said.

Silence fell over the room. To lighten the mood, Connaughton shared a story from economist John Kenneth Galbraith, who returned from a trip to find a student had placed a large sign on his office door for all to see. “The purpose of economic forecasting,” it said, “is to make astrology look good.”

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Nobody envies public employees as they see their jobs and salaries examined, debated and in some cases eliminated. Still, businesses have been through cuts and survived.

We can predict the emotions government employees will go through. First there’s fear about whose job will go. A few will be indignant, believing the decision-makers are misguided and have no idea which jobs are vital — other departments are bloated, not mine. Strain and sadness set it. Resist the temptation to look back; you may turn into a pillar of resentment.

A past publisher of the Post admonished his son to have a cold eye for numbers and a warm eye for people. Let’s keep that in mind as we talk about shrinking government. Some people will lose their jobs, while others are pressed to work harder and faster. Downsizing is sad business. But harsh realities leave few choices.

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Elizabeth Cook is editor of the Salisbury Post.